I got distracted by the election and missed posting an update for Week 9. However, you had the rules, so you could have found the Week 10 picks on your own. If you did, you already know that we won in Week 9 and went 2-for-2 in Week 10. The test now stands at 21 wins out of 30 games, which is a 70% win rate.
The Parlay bet for Week 10 also hit, bringing our Parlay win rate to 41.67%. Financially, we are now up $17.09 on Moneyline bets and $38.54 on Parlay bets, for a total profit of $55.63. The ROI on the Moneyline bets is 5.7%, which, as noted earlier, isn’t particularly impressive.
We will continue the experiment, but it’s worth noting that after 30 games, achieving a 70% win rate on a forecasted 74% with 95% accuracy is exactly what we should expect.
So, why is this a big deal?
The Copernicus Principle (and its equation) can be applied to anything by relying solely on statistics. It disregards underlying causes and focuses purely on probabilistic reasoning. While the principle is often used to estimate how long the Universe might last, I’m applying it here to determine how long an NFL betting trend might persist. For a detailed explanation of the principle, I recommend reading this article.
Looking ahead to Week 11, we have three bets: PHI, GB, and SF. We’re also placing a three-way Parlay.
-J